[Fmpro] The future you pretend isn't coming. (weep not for DRM)

[JJB]

Some futurist thoughts (if Steve Jobs scared you, then this may  
really scare you, and I know some of people are going to be angry  
with me for saying this, but I believe it to be a very likely  
scenario for the future):

* The digital information sharing revolution will ultimately destroy  
or transform the capitalist economic system as we know it (I have no  
dislike for capitalism, I just don't see the status quo continuing).

* Everything that can be seen or heard can and will be digitized and  
shared freely. Expect this to continue to increase and become the norm.

* In the short term, the only way to survive is to sell your music at  
a high price up front, once it is sold, it is freely available on the  
net to everyone.

* Younger musicians are giving away their music without even thinking  
about it, so whatever we do is an attempt to survive the collapse of  
the capital based economy, knowing that the
younger generation doesn't really care that much about it. Once they,  
and their children come of age, it is all over, so make your money now.

* Free software, Free Music, Free Movies will ultimately be followed  
by Free Hardware. (how about Free Love, baby?)

* Desktop manufacturing is in its infancy now, but will grow over the  
next 50-100 years into a major force, aided by nanotechnology and  
biotechnology, which will also ultimately contribute to the end of  
the captial based economy as devices for creating **anything  
whatsoever** become household items. Of course not all creations are  
good, just as not all music is good.

* My hope is that the ultimate result is a world where people create  
things because they enjoy creating them, and that includes everything  
from music to automobiles.

* I suspect Mr. Jobs believes that eliminating DRM will increase  
sales of both music and iPods. I believe it will, temporarily. Then  
the digital revolution will eliminate Apple, Microsoft, Hollywood,  
and the Music Industry completely. Maybe the construction industry  
will stick around another 100 years. Better start that organic farm  
in your back yard you have always dreamed about.

Why not to worry about unprotected content in the short term:

* Water is "free" you can pour it into any glass, nobody steals it,  
but homeowners still are paying their water bills. Its about the  
quality of the water, vs the free water you can get by dipping your  
cup into the nearest lake. Same with P2P. When you download using  
P2P, there is no guarantee of quality, the fishes in that water may  
be very dirty indeed, and no guarantee that the album you spent an  
hour downloading is actually what it says it is. Many people buy  
bottled water in a nice package even though it is in many cases not  
any better than what comes from their taps. It doesn't hurt to pour  
your nice bottled water into a beautiful glass either.

* In your lifetime there may actually not be anything to worry about  
from the perspective of lost sales of music or of movies - there may  
actually be more sales of digital music if DRM is not present.

***That being said, none of this matters if you aren't getting paid  
for the downloads anyway.***

Incompatible DRM is a problem: not everything is available from  
iTunes & the iPod doesn't play windows media encoded tracks with DRM,  
and the Zune, if anyone actually buys one, won't play iTunes  
protected content.

The whole DRM thing is a nightmare. For instance: You can buy season  
1 of Weeds on iTunes. But not season 2. You can't buy it anywhere. It  
isn't for sale, not even on Amazon.

But you can download it on P2P.


***I think the real thing to weep about right now, in this present  
economy is if you are not getting paid for music or movies that are  
sold via downloads. Someone IS getting paid, and will continue to be  
paid without DRM, perhaps even more than with DRM, but that someone  
may not be the creators of that music..***


In the future, it many not matter, but right now it definitely does  
matter.


The obvious thing with computers and the net is that it is natural to  
be able to share all digital content with anyone. Yes, people want to  
stop information sharing because they are afraid that they won't be  
able to make any money (they are correct, but the digital revolution,  
if allowed to unfold naturally, will ultimately take down the whole  
capitalist system anyway, so ***NOBODY will be able to make any  
money***) So ultimately, there is going to be a revolution and that  
revolution will be that anything that can be digitized will be  
available for free. This will ultimately transform the economies of  
the world in ways we can't imagine.

There may no longer be an economy other than Barter.

The only thing you can really do for the present (and possibly the  
future) is to sell your content at a very high upfront fee, because  
once one person has it, everyone will have it. Think about it. A  
respected painter sells his painting which he spent perhaps a month  
to a year creating for anywhere from $700 to $70,000. Once it is  
sold, the painter offers prints for much less. Anyone can scan and  
duplicate the painting, so once it is sold, it is going to be  
available on the net as a digital download(assuming the painter is  
famous, unknown people don't have to worry much about people  
downloading work they don't know exists).

Musicians, for the near future should adopt the same strategy. Sell  
for a high price, because once it is sold, it will be available to  
everyone for free.

Of course, things may not change at all, who knows the future, really?

Joel