[Fmpro] The future you pretend isn't coming. (weep not for DRM)

[Les Hurdle]

I'm not mad at you......... some of us got to this
point a long time ago.

What makes me mad is the fact many still think the
hind tit of ASCAP/BMI etc will continue to pour forth.

L

--- JJB <onephatcat at earthlink.net> wrote:

> Some futurist thoughts (if Steve Jobs scared you,
> then this may  
> really scare you, and I know some of people are
> going to be angry  
> with me for saying this, but I believe it to be a
> very likely  
> scenario for the future):
> 
> * The digital information sharing revolution will
> ultimately destroy  
> or transform the capitalist economic system as we
> know it (I have no  
> dislike for capitalism, I just don't see the status
> quo continuing).
> 
> * Everything that can be seen or heard can and will
> be digitized and  
> shared freely. Expect this to continue to increase
> and become the norm.
> 
> * In the short term, the only way to survive is to
> sell your music at  
> a high price up front, once it is sold, it is freely
> available on the  
> net to everyone.
> 
> * Younger musicians are giving away their music
> without even thinking  
> about it, so whatever we do is an attempt to survive
> the collapse of  
> the capital based economy, knowing that the
> younger generation doesn't really care that much
> about it. Once they,  
> and their children come of age, it is all over, so
> make your money now.
> 
> * Free software, Free Music, Free Movies will
> ultimately be followed  
> by Free Hardware. (how about Free Love, baby?)
> 
> * Desktop manufacturing is in its infancy now, but
> will grow over the  
> next 50-100 years into a major force, aided by
> nanotechnology and  
> biotechnology, which will also ultimately contribute
> to the end of  
> the captial based economy as devices for creating
> **anything  
> whatsoever** become household items. Of course not
> all creations are  
> good, just as not all music is good.
> 
> * My hope is that the ultimate result is a world
> where people create  
> things because they enjoy creating them, and that
> includes everything  
> from music to automobiles.
> 
> * I suspect Mr. Jobs believes that eliminating DRM
> will increase  
> sales of both music and iPods. I believe it will,
> temporarily. Then  
> the digital revolution will eliminate Apple,
> Microsoft, Hollywood,  
> and the Music Industry completely. Maybe the
> construction industry  
> will stick around another 100 years. Better start
> that organic farm  
> in your back yard you have always dreamed about.
> 
> Why not to worry about unprotected content in the
> short term:
> 
> * Water is "free" you can pour it into any glass,
> nobody steals it,  
> but homeowners still are paying their water bills.
> Its about the  
> quality of the water, vs the free water you can get
> by dipping your  
> cup into the nearest lake. Same with P2P. When you
> download using  
> P2P, there is no guarantee of quality, the fishes in
> that water may  
> be very dirty indeed, and no guarantee that the
> album you spent an  
> hour downloading is actually what it says it is.
> Many people buy  
> bottled water in a nice package even though it is in
> many cases not  
> any better than what comes from their taps. It
> doesn't hurt to pour  
> your nice bottled water into a beautiful glass
> either.
> 
> * In your lifetime there may actually not be
> anything to worry about  
> from the perspective of lost sales of music or of
> movies - there may  
> actually be more sales of digital music if DRM is
> not present.
> 
> ***That being said, none of this matters if you
> aren't getting paid  
> for the downloads anyway.***
> 
> Incompatible DRM is a problem: not everything is
> available from  
> iTunes & the iPod doesn't play windows media encoded
> tracks with DRM,  
> and the Zune, if anyone actually buys one, won't
> play iTunes  
> protected content.
> 
> The whole DRM thing is a nightmare. For instance:
> You can buy season  
> 1 of Weeds on iTunes. But not season 2. You can't
> buy it anywhere. It  
> isn't for sale, not even on Amazon.
> 
> But you can download it on P2P.
> 
> 
> ***I think the real thing to weep about right now,
> in this present  
> economy is if you are not getting paid for music or
> movies that are  
> sold via downloads. Someone IS getting paid, and
> will continue to be  
> paid without DRM, perhaps even more than with DRM,
> but that someone  
> may not be the creators of that music..***
> 
> 
> In the future, it many not matter, but right now it
> definitely does  
> matter.
> 
> 
> The obvious thing with computers and the net is that
> it is natural to  
> be able to share all digital content with anyone.
> Yes, people want to  
> stop information sharing because they are afraid
> that they won't be  
> able to make any money (they are correct, but the
> digital revolution,  
> if allowed to unfold naturally, will ultimately take
> down the whole  
> capitalist system anyway, so ***NOBODY will be able
> to make any  
> money***) So ultimately, there is going to be a
> revolution and that  
> revolution will be that anything that can be
> digitized will be  
> available for free. This will ultimately transform
> the economies of  
> the world in ways we can't imagine.
> 
> There may no longer be an economy other than Barter.
> 
> The only thing you can really do for the present
> (and possibly the  
> future) is to sell your content at a very high
> upfront fee, because  
> once one person has it, everyone will have it. Think
> about it. A  
> respected painter sells his painting which he spent
> perhaps a month  
> to a year creating for anywhere from $700 to
> $70,000. Once it is  
> sold, the painter offers prints for much less.
> Anyone can scan and  
> duplicate the painting, so once it is sold, it is
> going to be  
> available on the net as a digital download(assuming
> the painter is  
> famous, unknown people don't have to worry much
> about people  
> downloading work they don't know exists).
> 
> Musicians, for the near future should adopt the same
> strategy. Sell  
> for a high price, because once it is sold, it will
> be available to  
> everyone for free.
> 
> Of course, things may not change at all, who knows
> the future, really?
> 
> Joel
> 
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